The Corona Isolation Diary – day 11

I’ve been thinking for a while about maintaining some kind of a record of these times… fellow wordsmith friends agree that we must write about this… have some kind of a running reckoner of what went on, how we felt, what we did. I suppose it makes sense, especially since we have no idea how long this will be or how far this will go. Is it possible that this will be a world changing, era ending, history making, and apocalyptic sort of thing? From what I see so far, quite likely it will. So, some of these narratives we leave behind, assuming the worst, will probably end up being some kind of a future “Diary of Ann Frank” sort of deal (not mine, presumably, but some).

For my little unit, this is day 11 of self-isolating, day 6 of the official countrywide lockdown. For about n5 days before the announcement, we had already been isolating, only going out for essentials. We’d been watching the progress of the virus on the news for a while, and had started to reduce unnecessary social interaction before either the statewide or nationwide lockdowns were announced. The only people engaging in regular outings… were the offspring – forced because school was open, and the mater, because gallivanting (Oh! It’s all hyped, we Indians have super immunities, etc, etc). When schools finally closed on the 18^th, we were officially self-isolating, and constantly telling the mater to do the same.

A couple of days before the announcement of the nationwide lockdown measures, I had a rude awakening when my neighbourhood grocer told me he had run out of basics. Luckily, the stores in my mother’s area still had supplies so I stocked up on the essentials enough for about 20-25 days. It took much more of an effort to convince both my fellow and my mother of the needc to stock up … because state head as well as our dear PM had said “essentials will continue to be available”. Many friends have still not got a decent stock of basic dal-chal-atta and are happy in the thought that 21 days is not that long. Others have taken a walk around their area in the mornings and are happy and assured that shops are all open.  

It’s not that simple. Given the way casual and unorganized labour is just gone… the way trucks are not being able to ply because police have no idea of what essential goods are… the way perishable food is sitting in mandis, rotting… the way vegetables and fruits are rotting in fields because there is no one to either harvest or pack or haul, and no way to sell or transport… supply chains are as good as gone. This can only mean one thing. Shortages are only a matter of time. Basic staples, meds, gas, menstrual hygiene products… we need a decent stock of these… how much is decent? I am working on a base of 30 days’ worth, and top up as we consume. I have a child at home, so I must also think of snackfoods etc. I know this may be an indefinite situation (most likely to be much longer than the 21 days announced so far), and I know I can’t really do anything about impending shortages as they happen, but I hope to have at least enough to survive on for some time.

I see so many friends on social media who are using lockdown as a time for culinary extravagance and baking sprees. While I understand the impulse to get creative, experiment, and jazz up food in the absence of much else to do, I think it is short sighted to be using up groceries in more than usual quantities. On the contrary, we should probably be thinking of rationing. At home we are limiting food to a hearty but not extravagant breakfast, lunch and dinner comprising of 2 dishes only (unlike the 4-5 of average Bengali households), and a really small something in the evening, usually just biscuits. I don’t know how long lockdown will extend, and how bad things will get soon, in terms of availability – already today there was no packaged water, eggs have been absent from the market for weeks, and vegetables are beginning to dwindle. I fear, I dread, things will get far, far worse. And soon.

The fellow finally realized where things are headed, after this morning’s hunting expedition, and has now decided to stock up on meds this evening. Given that he is a hypertensive diabetic, these are essential meds, and – in my opinion – should have been acquired last week. I fear it might already be too late. My meds, mater’s meds, and essential basics – fever, cold, stomach upset – I have already stocked up enough for more than a month. Will top up as long as available.

It may seem like a lot of gloom and doom predictions… but that’s what the situation is showing me.

Here are a few things to consider.

farmers-left-stranded-with-fruit-and-veggies-rotting-in-the-fields

Trucks stranded

Punjab farmers dumping veggies they are unable to sell due to curfew

no supplies, and food rots in mandis

“Oh! But its only 21 days na”, a good friend shrugged off my advice. IS it? Even without the special circumstances of India, places like Italy and Spain, and the US, are clearly showing us that 21 days is just not going to cut it. How are we so unimaginative that we cannot conceive how enormous this is and how bad it can get for a country as crowded as ours with systems as lax as ours?!

Look at the math. Final predicted numbers are something 60% of the population being infected. Imagine that number... Just for a minute. For a country with 134 crore people, 60% of the population is more than 80 crore people. Even if corona has the much touted and hence flouted "low fatality rate" of 3%, that's still upwards of 2.4 crore people likely to die! Let that sink in.... 2.4 CRORE. Not to mention the people who will recover but need hospitalization and ventilation for that recovery. Imagine how fast it is likely to spread, especially with the morons doing everything they can to infect the largest possible number of people, and now the migrant labour situation taking the virus to every nook and cranny of the country…

India grapples with migrant worker exodus

Thousands of migrant workers at Anand Vihar bus terminus

With us being a country of slums and the slums being perfect grounds for infecting millions at a time…

Dharavi is sitting on a time bomb

Corona has spread to Mumbai slums

The way I see it, we have barely scratched the surface. Before these first 21 days are close to over, we will start seeing cases in thousands. Not long after that, in lakhs. Given our subpar health care systems, absolute lack of facilities, and shockingly few numbers of testing centers, isolation beds, and ventilators, many more people will die than necessary, because they will not have access to life saving care or meds. The sheer pressure on the existing system is likely to also crash the entire medical system, making care and emergency treatment difficult – if not impossible – for people with other medical issues. I hope no one I know catches dengue, or has a heart attack or stroke in the next 6 or so months. What the pandemic will do to the economy, to livelihoods, to supply chains, and more, globally and much more so in India, … well, that’s the stuff of my worst nightmares and fodder for dystopian literature. I am sure looting and food riots are not very far off… neither are curfews and army on the streets.

What this will mean for me and my little unit… I don’t know, but I am very, very afraid. Best case scenario… we survive, and when this is finally over, we start from scratch, trying to adjust to a world that is very different from what it is today.